Updating the potential for innovative development
The articles in latest issue of the Foresight journal (V. 19, № 2) analyze factors that determine the effectiveness of innovative entrepreneurship ecosystems, new tools for assessing their prospects and developing a competence base.
In complex contexts, established approaches to strategic forecasting are subject to revision. In the article ‘Addressing the Limitations of the Futures Cone: Introducing the Adaptive Futures Mesh’ Alireza Hejazi proposes a new analytical framework, the adaptive network model, as an alternative to common “cone of the future” model. It allows to take into account “unknown” factors, and visualize cascading effects and feedback loops. This increases management efficiency in uncertainty and turbulence, facilitates adaptation process to changing conditions, and expands foresight horizons.
Rapid AI development leads to increasing global competition, changing the power balance dynamics between different countries. Alexis José Colmenares-Zapata analyzes the impact of AI on the prospects for defense competition between the United States and China, as well as the process effects on smaller countries in the article ‘AI in U.S.-China Rivalry: Scenarios and Policies for Small States’. A set of possible scenarios for the period up to 2050 is presented, which describe different options for US and China confrontation on the Earth and in space, and reflect the corresponding vectors of strategies for small countries in one context or another. The scenarios can serve as a strategic canvas for developing proactive national security policies in light of the changing international landscape.
Due to the policy towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the demand for alternative fuel vehicles especially electric ones has grown significantly over the past decade. However, their production requires a wide range of non-ferrous metals, the limited availability of which significantly slows down the pace of transport electrification. The article ‘Scenarios of Development for Non-Ferrous Metal Markets Under the Spread of Alternative Fuel Vehicles’ authored by Igor Makarov, Grigory Baranov, Matvey Chistikov presents a scenario analysis of the development of the electric vehicle market, and then calculates the key metal requirements for each of the scenarios considered. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the increasing use of electric vehicles in the coming decades opens up significant opportunities for countries specializing in the production of non-ferrous metals, including Russia, to increase their supply to global markets.
Entrepreneurial ecosystems functioning in economic turbulence conditions is attracting increasing research interest. Authors Damaris Chieregato Vicentin, Gustavo Moraes, Nágela Bianca do Prado, Bruno Brandão Fischer , Betania Silva Carneiro Campello, Rosley Anholon explore relationship dynamics in entrepreneurial ecosystems and their impact on innovation in the context of developing countries, using Russia as an example. The key driving forces that determine the sustainability of ecosystems have been identified, and cause-and-effect relationships and the specificity of the adaptive mechanism have been established. The need for adaptive policies aimed at increasing the resilience of entrepreneurial ecosystems is emphasized.
Unicorn startups have become a new key indicator of national innovation systems high performance. Lamia Bouaziz, Besma Teffahi modeled the prospects for such players spread in the article ‘Modelling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Unicorn Startups’. The strengths and limitations of the models used in specific contexts are analyzed. Forecasting analyses suggest that all selected countries and sectors — except the US and Fintech — are likely to reach unicorn saturation by around 2030. These findings provide critical insights for planning, regulation, policy formulation, and portfolio decision-making.
As the digital economy becomes more widespread, organizations are faced with the need for digital transformation. This process goes beyond the simple implementation of advanced technologies and involves the management of processes of increased complexity, deep recombinations of business processes, structures, methods of external communications, and so on. However, these factors are not considered by most organizations, that in at least 80% of cases leads to unsatisfactory results. Philipp Goetzinger, Mario Spremić, Božidar Jaković study ‘The Role of Digital Leadership Capabilities in Enterprise-Wide Digital Transformation’ analyzes the reasons why most of these initiatives fail to achieve their goals. Principles that increase the chances of successful digital transformation are formulated.
The success of innovation policy depends on the ability to predict trends, invest in promising areas and ensure the transfer of technologies to the real sector of the economy. The Nestor Brandão Neto, Lester Faria, Francisco Cristovão Lourenço de Melo study ‘Patent Trends Analysis as a Basis for Innovation Strategies’ examines how the economic appropriation of R&D outcomes mirrors the dynamics of the innovation process and informs strategic planning, policy formulation, and innovation management in Brazil’s aerospace and defense sectors. The results indicate research problems expansion and a growing complexity of the innovation ecosystems in which considered industry institutes operate.
A key part of dynamic capabilities is working with the future, starting with basic skills - futures literacy (FL). Since this competence is key to the human resources of organizations, its development seems important, starting with university programs. For a long time, there were no objective tools for measuring the degree of their mastery. The authors of the article ‘Dynamic Capabilities: Towards Assessment of Futures Literacy Competency’ Roly Gutarra Romero, Alma Gabriela Valente Mercado, Luis Ramírez Sirgo attempt to fill this problem by offering an innovative approach to identifying and standardizing the assessment of FL competence. Theoretical dimensions of FL are proposed as a basis for grouping assessment criteria and compiling final assessments and their interpretation that can be described independently of each other. The ability to measure the initial level of FL will allow for the development of more effective educational programs for the development of this competence.
The electronic version of the issue is freely available on the ‘Foresight and STI Governance’ journal website. In the coming days, it will also appear in online libraries e-Library и Киберленинка, mobile platforms AppStore и Google Play. The printed version of the issue can be purchased at the HSE University Bookstore "BukVyshka" (20 Myasnitskaya St.), starting in July 2025, as well as by subscription.