Dec

2025

International Conference on Foresight and STI Policy took place at HSE ISSEK

XV International Academic Conference ‘Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation Policy’ organized by HSE University Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge took place on 12-14 November 2025. This year programme included nine thematic sessions and special workshop for BRICS countries. The conference traditionally became a platform for discussing the future of technology, transformation of labor markets, creative economy, role of artificial intelligence, and sustainable development, bringing together experts around the world from: Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, Egypt, Iran, the UAE, Indonesia, Australia, the UK, Malaysia and other countries.

Measuring of the Creative Economy: New Data and Approaches

Session on modern methods for measuring and evaluating creative industries moderated by Evgeniy Kutsenko, Director of ISSEK Center ‘Russian Cluster Observatory’, opened the conference programme.

The creative professions market is becoming increasingly dynamic and diverse. It not limited to traditional formats but is evolving into a digital phenomenon measurable in data. Session participants discussed new methodological approaches to industry analysis using platform statistics, algorithms for assessing digital creativity, and attention flows mapping.

Viktoriya Boos, Head of ISSEK Creative Industries Unit, presented creative industries classification developed in Russia, based on UNESCO's ecosystem approach and international experience. In 2024, the most economically successful fields were Software, Fashion, Advertising and PR. Tech-based creative industries are demonstrating the highest growth rates.

By comparison, in Indonesia, the fastest-growing segments are film, video games, and music. "The biggest contributors to economy are gastronomy, fashion, and handicrafts," said Ricky Pesik, a member of Jakarta's Creative Economy Supervisory Committee.

Alexandr Suvalko, Deputy Director of the HSE Institute for Cultural Studies, shared analysis results of creators’ activities in digital space.

"The creative economy is dual-faceted: on the one hand, semi-professional employment, and on the other, an attempt at self-realization and monetization. The key platforms for this are VK and Telegram. Experts note that successful work in the creative sector requires analytical, management, communication and AI skills, as well as the ability to work with," he said.

Experts concluded that an accurate assessment of the creative economy requires a comprehensive approach that combines statistical data, digital platform analysis, and consideration of intellectual property specifics.

Transforming Competencies in the Age of AI and Digital Twins

The second session focused on how labor market is changing under influence of digital twins, autonomous AI agents, and rapid development of AI technologies. Speakers represented HSE University, organisations from Australia and Indonesia, as well as corporate sector involved in technologies development. AI introduction accelerates automation of both routine and creative tasks. Experts estimate that by 2030, up to 90% of workers may face the need for upskilling or retraining.

Andrey Selskiy, Director of HSE Future Skills and Talent Centre, presented an overview of global trends in automation and employment transformation. Demand is shifting from routine functions to complex tasks requiring new skill combinations.

Stanislav Gridin (Cloud.ru) and Andrey Darkshevich (HSE Faculty of Computer Science) discussed the implementation of AI agents and co-pilot solutions. Their potential has only been realized partially, but a new ecosystem is emerging around specialists, where critical thinking, data analysis, and digital skills are particularly important.

Kirill Petrov, Research Fellow at St. Petersburg European University, emphasized the importance of engineering approach and ethical aspects of technological development.

International colleagues have noted the dynamic growth of AI in economy. According to Rosdiana Sijabat (Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia) by 2030, up to 65% of technical tasks could be performed using generative AI models. Bruno Pereira (Flinders University, Australia) believes that AI implementation success in small and medium-sized business is ensured by a combination of technological and soft competencies, as well as a supportive external environment.

In experts’ opinion, the main barrier to technological transformation is lagging creation of flexible and proactive regulatory environment for AI technologies and new competencies. Another challenge, but less significant, is sanctions.

Digital transformation is changing not only content of professions, but also nature of work itself. Systems thinking, managing complex technological ecosystems, digital ethics, and learning ability are becoming critical.

Global Foresight: New Principles for Designing the Future

The third session focused on global and regional Foresight practices. Discussion addressed to governance transformation in ASEAN countries, new methodological approaches of Japanese and European researchers, the impact of global digital trends and technological turbulence concept (alternation of booms and busts).

Mohd Nurul Azammi, Head of Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology shared experience in using Foresight tools to improve governance and prepare for responses to current and future challenges. He emphasized drivers for Foresight demand: achievement of efficiency and fiscal sustainability, demand for legitimacy and trust, need for resilience and antifragility, shift in citizen expectations and power dynamics, race for strategic advantage and sovereignty.

Professor of Nagoya University (Japan) Kuniko Urashima showed evolution of Japanese S&T Foresight from narrow technology forecast (Delphi method) to designing of a holistic vision of the future with participation of a wide range of stakeholders. It is necessary to consider wild cards - unlikely but significant events (technology breakthroughs (e.g. AI), pandemics, geopolitical and economic crises). She highlighted the importance of uncertainty acknowledging, adaptive systems building, interdisciplinary thinking, investing in resilience and creative future insights cultivating for design the future.

Ozcan Saritas, Professor of Rochester Institute of Technology (UAE) and Leading Researcher of HSE University Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies introduced the concept of technological turbulence: the world is becoming more complex, and technologies are creating new risks, triggering a cascade of unforeseen consequences. The main challenge is maintaining control over AI.

“The success of human control over AI will determine what the world will be like by 2050: a doubling of economy and Mars colonization, or a society in which reasoning machines take away people’s jobs, and AI algorithms actively interfere in everyday life, changing and imposing artificial values on people,” the speaker explained.

Alexey Mitkin, Director of Strategic Programmes and Innovative Development PJSC ‘Rostelecom’ presented the company’s approach combining qualitative methods with big data analysis to identify and monitor global trends. Special AI-powered software is used for this purpose. Comparable analysis of trend ratings for the period 2017-2025 revealed their dynamics. For example, mobile networks from 1^st position in 2017 fell to 3^rd in 2025, AI rose from 2^nd to 1^st, e-health moved from 3^rd to 2^nd, and information security - from 7^th to 4^th position. In 2025 the fast growing trends includes head mounted display, unmanned aerial vehicles, augmented reality technologies, data center networks, wearable computing, brain computer interfaces, user behavior analysis technologies. In 2025 quantum hacking, distributed quantum computing, AI hallucinations, nanotechnology drug delivery systems, explainable AI, parasocial relationships (one side emotional attachment of viewers to media personalities on social networks), covert communication in mobile networks and electronic skin are among week signals, i.e. technologies under development stage or perceived by scientists as a challenge.

Summarizing the session discussion Professor of HSE University Alexander Chulok noted that effective Foresight demands methods combination as well as consideration not only technological but also socio- economic factors.

STI Policy: Approaches to Its Analysis and Evaluation

The session participants discussed instruments of public STI policy at different levels. Director of ISSEK Centre for Science, Technology, Innovation and Information Policy Mikhail Gershman moderated the session.

Experts of ISSEK Centre for Science, Technology, Innovation and Information Policy Marina Evseeva and Ksenia Ustinova introduced regional STI policy maturity index. According their study fund increasing does not ensure innovation activity growth. The key factor is policy quality and maturity: regions with well-thought-out strategies and comprehensive support instruments more effective in transforming resources into results. The impact of measures differs between leading regions that demand targeted solutions and regions with high-tech industry where full-cycle programmes are most effective.

Elena Kameneva, Expert of ISSEK Centre for Science, Technology, Innovation and Information Policy, estimated effects of export support programmes for high-tech small and medium-sized enterprises. Analysis showed a moderate positive effect on revenue and headcount for companies that received assistance. Information services turned to be the most effective. The study confirmed the importance support instruments adjustment to high-tech business specifics, including development of IPR management and e-commerce services.

Stanislav Zaichenko, Leading Research Fellow of HSE University Laboratory for Economics of Innovation, analysed how universities and research organisations combine different public support instruments (grants, benefits, infrastructure programmes) using the outcomes of large-scale survey “Doing Science in Russia”. The results demonstrate high heterogeneity: leading universities employ widest range of instruments, while other organisations focus on targeted measures. The analysis confirms that the choice of instruments combination is closely linked to organisations’ current needs, resources, and expectations.

To increase STI policy effectiveness it is necessary to move from universal measures to differentiated and balanced approaches considering specifics of regions, companies and research organisations.

Technologies for Sustainable Development

Experts from Russia, India, and Oman discussed clean technology solutions spread, their economic and environmental impact, and necessary conditions for S&T support of sustainable development.

Gautam Goswami (The Energy and Resources Institute, India) introduced India's goals for economic development and carbon footprint reduction, as well as key technologies that are already transforming industry, energy, transport, and agriculture. These include smart factories, AI and digital twins, highly efficient engines, green hydrogen and robotic waste recycling. Among the most complex, but strategically important, are hydrogen energy and new generation nuclear reactors.

Nurcan Kilinc-Ata (Sultan Qaboos University, Oman) discussed the growing burden that AI development place on global energy infrastructure. AI data centers are projected to consume up to 50% of global energy by 2030. At the same time, AI algorithms can be part of solution—optimizing networks, managing demand, and integrating renewable energy. "AI's success today is determined not by code, but by accessible, sustainable energy," the expert emphasized.

Natalia Veselitskaya, Leading Research Fellow of HSE University Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, examined how GDP, population, green technologies, renewable energy, and labor productivity shape environmental sustainability across four developed nations. Analysis showed that economic growth impact on the environment is uneven: in the UK, modern standards have helped to mitigate environmental pressures, while in Australia, Canada and the US, GDP growth has often been accompanied by increased burden on the environment. Green patents consistently enhance environmental quality. However, renewable energy and productivity impacts vary beneficial in the UK's developed system, detrimental in Australia, Canada, and USA where structural factors and growth models dominate. Success demands coordinated policy innovation, technological progress, and integration of renewable energy sources adapted to local circumstances.

Discussion at the session demonstrated that technology can become a powerful tool for sustainable development, provided it is properly managed, supported by science based public policy, and through strong collaboration between engineers, researchers, businesses, and regulators.

Geography of Talent: Cities as Centers of Attraction

Experts discussed international mobility and role of urban environment in innovative development. Focus is on competition for talent, impatriation programmes, and attraction of unicorn companies to cities.

Kirill Tyurchev, Deputy Director of ISSEK Centre 'Russian Cluster Observatory’ presented an overview of international practices for attracting foreign talent through specialized visa programmes. Selection criteria include outstanding achievements, specific skills, educational level, and the presence of projects or investments.

“Russia has not yet developed a comprehensive system for attracting foreign talent, but individual mechanisms and programs are being implemented. For example, assigning status of a highly qualified specialist, issuing temporary residence permits for education, mega-grants for outstanding scientists, attracting talent to work in technology sector. An important step toward increasing Moscow's competitiveness could be simplifying the integration of foreigners into the city's economy," said Kirill Tyurchev.

Vladimir Savchenko, Deputy Director of Regional Development and Investments Division (Agency for Strategic Initiatives), spoke about pilot implementation of impatriation programme in nine Russian regions, during which three models of institutional support for returning specialists were applied.

Leonid Limonov, Director of ANO ICSER "Leontief Centre", emphasized role of local socio-cultural environment ("genius loci") in adaptation and dissemination of global innovations. Successful cities are characterized by high receptivity to new trends.

Tatyana Ostashchenko, Leading Expert of ISSEK Centre 'Russian Cluster Observatory', introduced a study on relationship between city openness and attraction of foreign founders of unicorn companies. Three types of cities were identified: "global hubs" (> 50% of foreign founders), "local leaders" (> 90% of local founders), and "balanced centers."

Experts concluded that successful talents attraction and retention require not only specialized programmes but also development of open, innovative, and adaptive urban environment capable to integrate newcomers.

Foresight Methodology: New Tools and Practices

Modern tools and approaches to futures studies focusing on integration of AI and big data analysis were discussed at the session.

Konstantin Vishnevsky, Director of ISSEK Centre for Strategic Analysis and Big Data, introduced intelligent analytical system iFORA based on unique multilingual database comprising 850+ million documents. The system includes AI assistants for trends analysis, semantic mapping and advice services. Coordination of specialized AI agents enables complex analytical tasks.

Yuhua BU, Professor of East China Normal University and Jinshen YU (Jiangnan University, China) analyzed evolution of China's educational policy. Using Shanghai as an example, the speakers discussed digital infrastructure implementation and AI-based "educational brain." The authors also presented results of their research—a theoretical framework for "ecological integration" for schools of the future development.

Danil Yatskin, Leading Expert of ISSEK Foresight Research Methodology and Organization Unit, presented a scenario study of Russian IT market development until 2027. Based on analysis of 900+ sources and 55 factors key technology areas were identified and trajectories of their development were plotted. As a result four scenarios of domestic IT industry development were shaped: "Didgital Ark"; "Isolation Code", "Synergy of Innovation" and "Digital Darwinism".

Rafael Popper, Founder and External Director of Futures Diamond Ltd (UK), summarized the Foresight methodologies evolution from imitation and training to adaptation and innovation using the example of 200+ initiatives in Latin America and Caribbean. Modern Foresight is rapidly transforming due to integration of big data, AI and scenario modeling, becoming more accurate and practice-oriented tool for strategic planning in various spheres - from technology and education to regional development.

Unconventional Approaches: From Science Fiction to Wildcard Events

Russian and international researchers discussed Foresight tools widening and updating by incorporating ideas from science fiction.

Ian Miles, Professor Emeritus of Manchester University (UK), introduced a conсept of Fortean thinking based on Charles Fort’s ideas. The approach envisages considering events seem to be unlikely or impossible in line of traditional science. Based on LLM models estimations professor demonstrated that many incredible predictions described in his own article in 1999 are today perceived as highly feasible. To increase confidence in expertise such scenarios should be involved to futures studies.

Yulia Milshina, Deputy Director of ISSEK International Research and Educational Foresight Center, described impact of "wild cards" – rare, but destructive events that radically change a development trajectory (for example, COVID-19 pandemic). In a context of growing uncertainty and multiple destabilizing factors it is important to create early detection systems for such events. The ISSEK Foresight Center is already integrating "wild cards" assessments to its forecasts using big data analytics, expert surveys and other methods.

Research team of ISSEK Foresight Research Methodology and Organization Unit led by Olesia Maibakh analyzed 1300+ technologies from 100 science fiction literatures.

“The most daring technology forecasts are hidden not in analytical reports but in pages of science fiction books. Writers formulate just emerging society demands so the main value of science fiction is not in a technic accuracy but in ability to predict deepest needs of humanity. For example, AI ideas and sensor experiences sharing appeared in literature long before their technology implementation. Authors with technical backgrounds describe the nearest future more precisely, while authors of large-scale sagas generate more innovation ideas but with less accuracy,” Maibakh said.

In conclusion, Tanja Hichert from Stellenbosch University (South Africa) discussed transformative Foresight that focuses on system fundamental change but not on its development. This approach is particularly relevant for Africa which is projected to be home to a quarter of the world's population by 2050. The method enables to find alternative paths of development for locally specific regions.

The Future and Artificial Intelligence

The concluding session devoted to identification of national AI research priorities, global trends analysis and discussion of AI role in technology forecast. Deputy Director of ISSEK Pavel Rudnik moderated the session, Director of ISSEK Foresight Centre Alexander Sokolov, Petrus Letaba and Getnet Fanta from University of Pretoria (South Africa), and Professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University Konstantin Vorontsov, presented their research. Rapid AI technology development resulted in AI involvement to million people daily life. However, expert assessments of AI value for economy and society differ. Restrained forecasts assign AI a modest role as a tool for efficiency increasing while the most daring and optimistic ones predict radical socio-economic transformations.

PRESENTATIONS

Foresight of Competences: Labor Paradigm Shift in the Age of Digital Twins and AI Agents

Andrey Selskiy, HSE University, Russia

Job Automation Prospects: Evolution of Approaches and Industry Specifics (PDF, 5,88 Мб)

Rosdiana Sijabat, Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia, Indonesia

New Technologies, the Labor Market, and the Sustainable Development Agenda (PDF, 1,46 Мб)

Kirill Petrov, Research Associate at the European University, Russia

Ethics of Technological Innovations: Competency Implications (PDF, 1,17 Мб)

Global Foresight and Regional Dimension

Mohd Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri, Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology, Malaysia

Reimagining ASEAN Governance for a Digital, Agile, and People-Centered Future (PDF, 2,73 Мб)

Kuniko Urashima, Nagoya University, Japan