Foresight in BRICS Countries: International Dialogue on the Future of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development

Special workshop on Foresight-studies in BRICS countries took place in the framework of XV International Academic Conference ‘Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation Policy’. Experts from Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, Egypt, Iran and India discussed the role of Foresight in STI policy, AI usage in forecasting and challenges of digital era.

BRICS countries contribution to global science is increasing yearly: number of joint publications has grown fivefold over past decade. BRICS countries share of all world publications occupies approximately 50% and 60% of citations.

“China and India lead in terms of publication volume, while Russia, the UAE and Ethiopia - by depth of integration. Thematic focus is shifting from basic to interdisciplinary research in healthcare, AI, digital technologies, and sustainable development,” Director of ISSEK Centre for Strategies and Programmes Sergey Revyakin said.

Deputy Director of Institute for Science and Technology Planning and Foresight, Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development Yuan Like spoke about Foresight methods transformation form classic expert surveys to hybrid models using big data and AI. According to him, AI is already being used at all stages of Foresight increasing evidence and reducing subjectivity of analysis. At the same time AI does not replace humans: “Experts role remains key – precisely they ensure results interpretation and context understanding. Therefore, development of AI-Expert hybrid systems and data processing standardization are priorities,” expert emphasized.

Speakers presented national Foresight practices at the workshop.

In South Africa Foresight has become an official instrument of state policy enshrined in decadal plan for development. It enables science and technology to be a key element of the country long-term development. Mlungisi Cele and Precious Lukhele from South Africa Department of Science, Technology and Innovation, discussed South Africa’s priority areas: energy, healthcare, digitalization and ecology. While weaknesses remain shortage human resources shortage and dependence on political situation.

Fernando Rizzo and Marcelo Paiva from Brazil Center for Management and Strategic Studies in Science, Technology and Innovation presented Foresight projects in AI and climate change areas. The focus is on megatrend analysis, energy scenario development, low-carbon development trajectories, and the use of AI to support management decisions.

According to Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk, Director of Egyptian Science, Technology and Innovation Observatory, Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (Egypt), the country places emphasis on universities role strengthening in adaptation to climate change through creation of interdisciplinary centers and educational programmes.

National Science and Technology Foresight Programme of Iran has been systematically defining technology priorities actively involving business and society since 2015, said Kiarash Fartash from Iran Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University. 700+ experts identified key AI technologies for medicine, education, security and agriculture under project to assess priorities for AI and robotics development.

In India technology Foresight is considered as key to overcome infectious and non- infectious diseases in Global South countries. Pradeep Srivastava from Indian Institute of Technology (BHU) Varanasi among the main trends for the next ten years emphasized telemedicine, AI diagnostics, wearable biosensors and genetic technologies, while among risks are digital inequality and regulation gaps.

The workshop moderator Alexander Sokolov, Director of ISSEK International Research and Educational Foresight Centre, Head of UNESCO Chair on Future Studies, concluded that BRICS countries are not only increasing science and technology strength, but as well are actively developing their own Foresight schools adapting its methods to national conditions and global challenges. Participants underlined high potential for further cooperation among BRICS countries in joint Foresight-studies and knowledge exchange.

PRESENTATIONS

Sergey Revyakin, HSE University, Russia

S&T Collaboration between BRICS Countries: Bibliometric Analysis (PDF, 1,14 Мб)

Yuan Like, Institute for Science and Technology Planning and Foresight, Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development, China

Navigating Expert-AI Synergy in Technology Foresight (PDF, 1,76 Мб)

Mlungisi Cele and Precious Lukhele, Department of Science, Technology and Innovation, South Africa

Towards Institutionalising STI Foresight in South Africa: Lessons, Gaps and the Road Ahead (PDF, 1,70 Мб)

Fernando Rizzo and Marcelo Paiva, Center for Management and Strategic Studies in Science, Technology and Innovation, Brazil

Foresight in Brazil (PDF, 1,72 Мб)

Kiarash Fartash, Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University, Iran

Iran's National S&T Foresight Programme: Overview of Recent Activities (PDF, 2,01 Мб)

Pradeep Srivastava, Indian Institute of Technology (BHU) Varanasi, India