Drivers of Russia's Economy Development: From Traditional Industries to New Technologies
On April 14, 2026 Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK) of the National Research University Higher School of Economics held section “Forecasting socio-economic and science and technology development in dynamically changing external environment: methods, models and results” within academic theme "Foresight studies" of XXVI April International Academic Conference named after Evgeny Yasin. Participants discussed key areas of country's development in the context of economic and political turbulence.
Drivers of Russia's Economy Development: From Traditional Industries to New Technologies
Mikhail Goland, Director of HSE ISSEK Center for Strategic Forecasting, moderated the session. The main topic of discussion was factors that drive sustainable economic growth in new environment. Participants concluded that technological sovereignty and key industries transformation are essential for Russian economy development.
Ivan Bondarev, representing the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), presented a paper entitled "Technological Sovereignty Through the Prism of Statistical Analysis" and discussed how the topic of technological sovereignty can be transformed from a political and journalistic framework into analytical and measurable one. He compared international and Russian approaches to assessing technological sovereignty, demonstrating that international studies tend to construct aggregate indices, while Russian research tradition is more focused on sectoral and disaggregated measurements. The speaker paid special attention to the limitations of existing methods and the need to consider not only quantitative parameters, but also the qualitative characteristics of technologies, without which any integrated assessment is incomplete.
Anna Airiyants from Novosibirsk Akademgorodok Science and Technology Park Foundation devoted her report to regional development institutions. Using Novosibirsk Akademgorodok Park as an example, she demonstrated that sustainability of innovation environment is determined not only by infrastructure availability but also by quality of institutional mechanisms linking science, business, and government. Important part of the presentation was AkademPark's performance analysis: the number of residents, jobs created, revenue and tax collection, as well as experience of working with Foundation for Assistance to Small Innovative Enterprises. Anna Airiyants demonstrated that regional development institutions can act not as auxiliary element, but as system-forming element of knowledge-intensive scenario for growth, especially if they are capable of providing expert project support and reducing uncertainty for innovative companies.
Maria Gaivoronskaya from Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS presented report "The Russian Gas Industry at Current Stage: Challenges, Transformation, and Strategic Prospects," dedicated to current challenges of gas sector, areas for its adaptation, and long-term development opportunities. This presentation marked important shift in the session from a discussion of new technologies and innovative infrastructure to analysis of large traditional industry that remains strategically important to the Russian economy.
The session demonstrated that discussion of growth drivers is not limited to choice between the "old" and "new" economies: a more productive approach is one in which technological innovation, development institutions, and basic industries transformation are viewed as interconnected elements of a unified strategy.
Dynamics of Culture, Tourism and Public Values in the Context of Geopolitical Turbulence
Alexander Suvalko, Deputy Director of the HSE Institute for Cultural Studies, moderated the session. Participants discussed changes in society's value structure, transformation of cultural institutions, and impact of tourism on regional socioeconomic development. It turns out that culture, social values, and tourism are no longer peripheral issues, but rather crucial areas of national development.
Kristina Rakova from the Institute of Philosophy RAS presented a report on observing traditions and customs value in Russia and Europe. A comparative analysis of attitudes toward traditional values dynamics revealed that value change is unevenly evolving both in Russia and European countries. According to the researcher, given general trend toward declining significance of traditionalist attitudes, this isn't simply a matter of tradition being supplanted by modernity. On the contrary, a balance is needed between modern values of individualism and traditional values of collectivism. The speaker also noted that these values communication channels — education, media, social networks, and popular culture — play a significant role.
Kristina Boyakova (HSE ISSEK Centre for Statistics and Monitoring of S&T and Innovation) devoted her presentation to international migration of talent, examining it in context of colonial legacies and new global factors of mobility. She showed that highly skilled workers migration is determined not only by current economic incentives, but also by persistent historical asymmetries that influence distribution of educational and professional opportunities. This approach allowed to consider talent migration as complex social process in which economic interests, institutional environment, cultural capital, and inertia of different countries common past are intertwined.
Alexander Suvalko presented the results of study "The Future of the Museum: Between Compensation and Digitalization." His presentation focused on how museum's function is changing in face of cultural experience digitalization and changing audience expectations. Museum is introduced not only as a space for preserving exhibits of the past, but also as institution that compensates for shared cultural experience lack, creating conditions for meaningful interaction with history and simultaneously mastering new forms of digital presence.
Margarita Gvozdeva from RANEPA spoke about the impact of tourism on socioeconomic indicators of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. She presented tourism as factor capable of directly and indirectly impacting economic growth, employment, investment, infrastructure development, and environmental quality. However, the speaker emphasized ambiguity of these effects: under favorable conditions, tourism can be a source of growth and diversification, while excessive pressure on area can have negative consequences.
This paper linked value and cultural issues with applied regional development analysis, emphasizing the interdisciplinary nature of the discussion.
Poster Session "New Methods and Models of Science, Technology and Socio-economic Forecasting"
Vitaly Dementiev (HSE ISSEK Department for Research of Legislation in S&T and Innovation) presented poster report "Developing Science and Business Cooperation – Key Condition for Ensuring Technological Leadership." He discussed the results of study examining government and funding support measures in strategic documents and state programmes. The study found that development institutions are gradually changing their approaches, placing increasing emphasis on collaboration between science and business, implementation of artificial intelligence technologies, and updating of proven collaboration mechanisms. It was also found that government support plays a key role in R&D performance in priority technological areas, accounting for over 60% of funding. To improve efficiency, the authors propose refining existing partnership support tools. Furthermore, when creating roadmaps, it is important to consider life cycle characteristics of new technologies and specifics of individual industries.
Anton Dozhdikov (Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology RAS) analyzed Russian film distribution using AI trained on a dataset of 2,000 films. According to the author, machine learning algorithms are capable of predicting theatrical results based on analysis of film crew's past work combined with financial parameters. Using such pre-trained models will allow for reliable calculation of future box office receipts, profitability, and audience ratings for film project.
Alina Demekhina and Yulia Milshina (HSE ISSEK International Research and Educational Foresight Centre) presented a joint project of HSE International Centre of Decision Choice and Analysis and HSE ISSEK Foresight Center, dedicated to developing methods for decision-making in conditions of profound uncertainty and risk of wildcard events. The research focuses on minimizing radical negative consequences of such events for key economic sectors. The project team developed new approaches to classifying and identifying wildcard events based on the iFORA big data mining system. As a result, they created the largest database of such events in Russia, containing over 450 wildcard events and their likely scenarios. Farther, the researchers plan to develop models and decision-making methods to prevent or minimize negative consequences of wildcard events, improve algorithms for "weak signals" searching and conduct stress testing of wildcard effects to increase sustainability of socioeconomic development.
