Foresight-Russia, no 4, 2013
This introduces a new issue of "Foresight-Russia". It is not intended as a special issue, but its articles are linked by two reference topics: "Human capital in the knowledge-based economy" and "Embedding Foresight in decision-making".
The issue starts with the article "The Impact of Tolerance on Economic Modernization in Comparative Perspective" by Andrey Shcherbak, Senior Researcher, the Laboratory for Comparative Social Research (LCSR) at the Higher School of Economics. Based on empirical tests, the article confirms the assumption proposed by a number of researchers worldwide that tolerance towards gender equality, ethnic and sexual minorities is a critical prerequisite in establishing and maintaining favorable conditions for attracting creative people, which is considered a main driver of the postindustrial (innovation) economy. Using data from 58 countries the author compares two distinct patterns of modernisation, depending on the level of social tolerance and institutional development. Unlike the "tolerant" strategy, which requires the presence of developed political institutions to ensure protecting the interests of the creative class, "catch-up" strategy puts the main emphasis not on values and strengthening institutions, but on higher investment rates. The author argues that the "tolerant" model is much more effective tool in achieving modernisation than the "catch-up" model.
The article "International Research Laboratories in Russia: Factors Underlying Scientists’ Satisfaction with Their Work" by Ronald Inglehart, Tatiana Karabchuk, Stanislav Moiseev and Marina Nikitina provides interim results of a program for developing international research labs in Russia, implemented since 2011. The authors of this article also work in LCSR, which, incidentally, is one of 16 international laboratories affiliated with the Higher School of Economics. The article examines the efficiency of international laboratories in terms of increasing national research capabilities by attracting leading international scientists as well as young scholars. Assessment is based on intrinsic (number of publications, patents etc.) and perceived criteria (job satisfaction). Motivation and involvement of employees as well as availability of resources are regarded as the main determinants of efficiency.
Holders of academic degrees are regarded as the most valuable asset for the knowledge-based economy in terms both of costs spent on their training and of resulting research and capability to drive forward advances in science, technology and knowledge about society. With a view to better understanding the labour market, career path and mobility of PhD holders, the OECD, in coordination with the UNESCO Institute for Statistics and Eurostat, implements a specific project "Careers of Doctorate Holders" (CDH). The article "Doctorate Holders: Labour Market and Mobility Indicators", prepared by the participants of this project Laudeline Auriol, Max Misu and Rebecca Freeman, presents some results of the second international CDH data collection conducted in 2010. Like their counterparts from LCSR, the authors pay close attention to the factors determining the degree holders’ satisfaction with their work. The study reveals that occupying long-lasting post-doctoral internship positions prior to obtaining a tenured scientific position may adversely affect a scientific career. This fact to a large extent explains significant migration of degree holders to the corporate research sector, where the duration of the internship is usually no more than 3-4 years (in the university sector it is usually 2-2.5 times longer). For more information on the previous rounds of the CDH project see the publications by Laudeline Auriol in the journal for 2007 and 2010 (in Russian).
The article "Future as Unexplored Domain: Connecting Foresight to the Making Strategic Decisions" by Gill Ringland, CEO, SAMI Consulting (UK) switches readers’ opinion to Foresight theme. It suggests some reasons that strategic decisions in organisations are often made with good backsight and less foresight. The main reason, in author’s opinion, is that most employees prefer to follow proven patterns and are less adaptable to change. Only few experts have a flexible mindset, that is, wary of commitment to any single way of seeing an issue, and relatively ready to recalibrate their views. Many futurists display similar characteristics. Gill Ringland describes the characteristics of an organisation able effectively to harness the potential of both archetypes and take foresight into its strategy. Using the example of the work being done with the European Commission’s EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking Activities), where the author has a membership, the article demonstrates the practice of an efficient connecting foresight to strategic decisions.
The concluding article provides a review of the HSE Annual Conference on Foresight and STI Policy, held by the ISSEK in late October. The participants discussed possible directions of futures studies, capabilities of developing Foresight methodology in accordance with the changing tasks of S&T and innovation policies, embedding Foresight results in decision-making, strengthening the role of the stakeholders in the Foresight projects, as well as international, national, corporate Foresight practices and the novel tools of futures studies. More information about the conference is available here.
Prepared by Mikhail Salazkin