Royal Foresight
This summer Alexander Sokolov, director of the HSE ISSEK Foresight Centre, took part in the International Panel of Futurists (IPF) in Morocco. The Royal Institute for Strategic Studies (IRES) invited a pool of experts to suggest long-term scenarios for the country’s development, taking into account emerging global technology and social trends and the quite strong role the traditional way of life plays in this Maghreb country.
Established in 2013, the Royal Institute for Strategic Studies is considered to be the main think-tank in Morocco, responsible for preparing the nation’s strategic agenda. The institute’s recommendations serve as reference documents against which the king and the government check all their policies.
To develop a more panoramic vision of the country’s progress, and extend the range of expert evaluation techniques, the institute’s management convened a panel comprising leading Foresight scholars from developed economies (US, UK, Switzerland, France) and developing countries (BRICS, Mexico, Egypt, Iran). Inviting professionals with different experience and different approaches to futures studies, the organisers aimed to achieve not only geographical and cultural variety but also gender equality, with a particular accent on the latter. It was no chance that “Creation of a common lexicon” was made a separate item on the first day’s agenda. Representatives entrusted with the task of presenting the results of the joint deliberations at the final press conference were also elected at the very start.
After the participants have described a range of relevant methodologies and practices to each other, they conducted a brainstorming session to identify major trends (stable and volatile), weak signals, and threats significant to the whole world and to the Maghreb specifically. These served as a basis for various global and national-level development scenarios for the period until 2030 and 2050. At the next stage the experts prioritised the major factors potentially capable of radically changing the situation (“game-changers”), and suggested a number of alternative areas for national development strategies. Final outcomes of such work usually remain confidential, in the form of government-level recommendations. However, the event’s web page includes links to a number of presentations and videos of the expert panel participants’ comments.
Previously, the HSE ISSEK Foresight Centre’s experts participated in national Foresight studies and evaluation of national Foresight projects in Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, the UK, Romania, Bulgaria, South Africa, Colombia, and other countries.
by Elena Gutaruk