In brief: Water Resources Management
Yulia Milshina, Leading Expert at the HSE ISSEK Foresight Centre, made a presentation at the III BRICS Young Scientists Forum in South Africa (24–29 June) on managing water resources in the situation of climate change. The IQ.HSE portal publishes the main points of her report..png)
The current rates of change, and technological innovation are unprecedentedly high, and ongoing monitoring of new trends allows to set strategic goals, identify alternative options, study disruptive innovation, weak signals, and wild cards. The complex picture of emerging trends helps to understand global processes, and find ways to apply effective policies to create sustainable future.
Global trends lead to changes in various activity areas, and affect people’s lives on all levels. We identify five groups of such trends: climate change and use of natural resources, socio-demographic transformations, emergence of new economic growth models, changing geopolitical context, and emergence of a new S&T development paradigm.
Global environmental trends are often ignored in studies, but they can turn into the main factor determining success or failure of specific projects, and national or regional strategies. Their impact is already very strong, and is growing with every passing year. E.g. since 1880 the temperature on the planet increased by 1.5 °C and keeps growing: the last three years were the hottest during the whole period of observations.
These processes lead to significant consequences. During the 20th century two thirds of the world’s marshlands were lost due to human activities, and 60% of ecosystems were damaged. The number of premature deaths caused by air pollution is predicted to reach 4.5 million by 2040, and a tenth of the planet’s biodiversity is expected to be lost. The threats are particularly high in countries with high population density, and high level of anthropogenic activities.
Environmental processes affect the quality of water and its movement through water systems, along with formation and erosion of soil. For water systems, deteriorating ecology translates into more frequent natural cataclysms such as floods and droughts, pollution of water bodies, collapse of local fisheries and farms, and on top of that, aggravation of political conflicts over access to resources. Due to climate change dry areas (where 40% of humankind live) get drier, while damp ones (20% of the global population, or 1.6 billion people) get flooded.
During the last few decades global demand for water grew by about 1% a year due to population growth and changing consumption structure. According to the OECD estimates, the current socio-economic trends combined with lack of systemic water policies will lead to global demand for water growing by 50% between 2000-2050. Agriculture will remain the biggest consumer, but high growth rates are also expected in industry (+400%), energy (+140%), and households (+130%). The growth will occur in non-OECD countries, while OECD member states are expected to cut their water consumption due to more efficient use of water resources in the agricultural sector, and application of advanced waste water treatment technologies.
Brazil, Russia, and China are among the ten countries who own 60% of the world’s accessible water resources. Demand for water is quickly growing in China and India who account for almost 40% of the global population, and a third of the global water demand. India will keep using most of the water it consumes for agricultural purposes. In China, South Africa, and Brazil demand for water in the agricultural sector will grow, but by no more than 10% by 2050. By the mid-21st century industry will remain the main consumer of water resources in Russia. There are two main aspects of managing water resources: internal (country level) and external (transnational) ones. On the national level, BRICS countries have many common problems related to water resources, such as inefficient management systems, obsolete infrastructure, uneven geographical distribution of water, growing threats of negative consequences of climate change, high level of pollution, etc. E.g. irrigation efficiency in Brazil, South Africa, India, and China is at about 50%, and waste of water in water supply systems is very high. According to certain estimates, Russia also needs to repair about 40% of its water pipeline network, while water waste in the mains is at almost 50%.
Water reservoirs and systems (rivers, lakes, etc.) are not always located within national borders. The likelihood of international and regional conflicts is much higher in water stressed areas where water management systems are not sufficiently developed. E.g. in 158 out of 263 transboundary water basins no mechanisms for interacting on water-related issues exit. Two thirds of water basins for which agreements do exist include three or more coastal nations, but only 20% of such agreements are multilateral. BRICS countries can play a key role here as major regional and world leaders striving to shape balanced policies on managing transboundary water resources.
On the national level, water infrastructure must be upgraded; efficiency of irrigation systems increased; and strategies developed to adapt to climate change, and ameliorate its consequences. On the international level, mechanisms must be adopted which would help make sensible decisions on water use, beneficial for all concerned parties; water flows, and water quality must be monitored; joint projects (infrastructural, innovation, etc.) should be implemented, and steps taken to protect the environment and ecosystems.
Even taking into account the best international practices in the water supply and drainage sector, no single all-purpose management model suitable for all countries can be suggested. Cooperation between all stakeholders – not just countries, non-profit organisations, businesses, universities, and R&D centres but also the public will provide a key to reducing environmental and water-related risks. Generally, an integrated multilevel management and regulation system should be put in place, to coordinate goals, objectives, and action plans of monitoring and supervising agencies.