SPIEF–2014: On Technology and Trust
St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF–2014) was held on May 22—24 under the motto "Sustaining Confidence in a World Undergoing Transformation". Ozcan Saritas, the leading research fellow at HSE ISSEK Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, participated in its panel session “Will Technology Hollow out the Global Middle Class?”.
A detailed overview of prof. Saritas participation in the forum will be published in future editions of the international journal Foresight (Emerald Publishing Group). Here it is a brief version of his statements.
Despite the political friction, the Forum showed strong business interest in Russia. Particularly, global multinational companies and large businesses were well represented. Considering Russia’s role as a supplier of oil, gas and a wide variety of natural resources; and a large market for machinery, equipment and consumer products, it was obvious that businesses could not easily compromise their close links with Russia. During the Forum technology and energy issues were among the key topics on the table with several dedicated sessions. This was not surprising considering the importance of the energy sector in the overall Russian economy and a strong desire for technological advancement. While discussing new technologies and their impact on human life and society as well as relations between states in terms of their role in global value chains, experts switched from the country to the global context and from the actual agenda to the medium and long-term horizons.
Labour Automation for Intellectuals
Due to the rapidly developing technologies, it is estimated that 5–7 trillion USD of the world’s economic activity will be impacted by the automation of knowledge work over the coming decade. The main question for the panel discussion, moderated by Simon Nixon, Chief European Commentator at The Wall Street Journal, was whether technological development, coupled with the pressure of economic deficit and austerity, would put additional pressure on middle-class prosperity, and what steps can be taken to ensure economies possess both the competitive skills and the supporting social systems to maintain — or improve — broad-based affluence? Participants also discussed possible threats associated with these processes.
Prof. Saritas offered three scenarios regarding the future interaction of technology and workers. These included a ‘positive’ scenario (Blue sky), a ‘negative’ scenario (Dark clouds) and a ‘different’ scenario (Back to basics).
The “Blue sky” scenario draws a fairly prosperous picture and suggests that the technological development and automation will allow people to work and behave like humans do. Most of the routine work and simple decision making processes will be delegated to computers and machines. People will be able to devote more time and energy to intellectual tasks, sports, arts, creative thinking and innovations. This may be considered as a new renaissance period for humanity.
The “Dark clouds” scenario suggests that humans will lose the race against the machines. Once machines will be capable of undertaking non-routine tasks and making decisions under high complexity and uncertainty, more people may lose their jobs, including the ones the higher and lower extremes of the spectrum. A possible wild card here is the alienation of humans and, as a result the emergence of anti-technology movements. This would create a serious unrest in the society.
The third scenario, “Back to basics”, suggests a ‘technology-free society’. The production and consumption patterns of the society will change significantly. People will form societies where the technology will not dominate, but will rather play a role of an enabler in people’s lives. Under this scenario, a new definition for social classes will be introduced. The level of income will not be a significant factor in this definition.
In any of these scenarios there will be quite enough activities for "white collars". However, jobs, which involve human flexibility and the combination of skills, will become advantageous. The quality and quantity of jobs will increase as long as people are able to create new combinations of routine and non-routine professions.
The video from the panel discussion with Ozcan Saritas is available here:
Source: SPIEF—2014
New Sources of Energy and Networks for Its Distribution
Energy is a must-item in every strategic forum agenda. Ozcan Saritas chose two panel sessions in the SPIEF–2014 programme where new sources of energy and infrastructure in this sector were discussed: "Technological Premises for the Russian Oil Industry" and "The Integration of Global Energy Grids: Joint Projects for the Future".
Participants of the first debate focused on the discussion of methods of energy production from shale which are still non-traditional for Russia, despite the fact that our country has the world's largest deposits of shale oil (just Bazhenov Formation in Western Siberia can be estimated at 2.3 trillion barrels). "Green" technology and environment "friendly" methods of producing energy were not considered, as Ozcan Saritas stated.
In the second discussion initiated by JSC "Rosseti" experts discussed approaches to the globalization of markets, technologies, innovations and strategies of energy companies. Integration of energy systems is becoming a more distinct priority for the major players in this sector, as it allows increasing the profitability and efficiency of resources and infrastructure utilization, reduce risks, and provide energy security and sustainable growth of both national and global economy.
Goals for Further Development
According to Ozcan Saritas, perhaps, the most notable event of the Forum was the plenary speech given by the President Vladimir Putin. The president commented in detail on the topical issues of international and domestic policy. In particular, he systemically presented the context and priorities in building relations with a number of countries (first of all, Ukraine, China and the USA) and country communities (the European Union and the CIS).
Vladimir Putin paid special attention to the development of real sector as well as social service with a focus on modernization of education and health care. In order to reduce risks of over-reliance on oil and gas export, Russia will target to increase non-energy commodity exports (by about 6% a year).
Vladimir Putin emphasised the importance of human capital in the economic development and set increasing the level of vocational training for state agencies and state-owned companies as one of the priority state tasks. Establishing professional standards will become mandatory for this category of staff in the longer term.
As the representative of the international expert community, Ozcan Saritas noted some additional emphasis in the President’s speech which is really significant for building long-term strategic relations with Russia. He completed his review with a comment that it would be interesting to see next year’s SPIEF to compare with this year’s amid the Ukrainian crisis.
Prepared by Elena Gutaruk based on Ozcan Saritas’ article for “Foresight” journal