Foresight-Russia no.2/2014 is published
In the new issue, you can read about scenarios for shipbuilding, Foresight evolution in Brazil, the results of a ten-year evaluation of technology Foresights in several leading countries, the state of play in Russia of a number of advanced technologies (3D-printing, the Internet of Things, composite materials), and how to improve management efficiency in terms of information overload.
The issue opens with the article ‘International Foresight of the 2000s: A Comparative Analysis’ which compares Foresight studies contracted by the governments of China, Japan, France, UK, USA and the European Commission. Specialists of the VDI Technologiezentrum (Germany) Axel Zweck, Anette Braun and Sylvie Rijkers-Defrasne analyse such projects undertaken worldwide in the last ten years, including a recently completed fourth round of comparative studies. According to their observations, all the Foresight projects examine the prospects for development in areas including energy, medicine, bio-, nano-, information and communication technologies (ICT). Another interesting conclusion is that progression in sustainability/environment and ICT is a prerequisite for progress in other areas.
Russia’s standing in popular areas of advanced manufacturing (e.g. 3D-printing, Internet of things, and composite materials) are estimated in the article ‘Advanced Manufacturing: New Emphasis in Industrial Development’ by Irina Dezhina and Alexey Ponomarev (Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology). The authors studied the experience of the USA and the UK in fostering development of advanced manufacturing including the creation of consortia, dissemination of diagnostic monitoring, and implementation of systemic measures that link training of personnel, support of research and development, and small businesses.
The article ‘Foresight in Civil Shipbuilding — 2030’ was prepared by ISSEK members Natalya Velikanova, Anastasia Edelkina, Oleg Karasev and Marina Klubova in cooperation with representatives of two partner organisations — Yuri Dekhtyaruk, Igor Karyshev and Maria Korableva (Krylov State Research Centre), Anna Bogomolova and Natalya Dyshkant (Moscow State University). The authors looked at four scenarios for the global development of the shipbuilding sector in the next 10-15 years. The prospects for the technological development of the Russian shipbuilding and ship repair industry were analysed in the context of global, national, and industry-specific challenges, trends, drivers and limitations.
The evolution of Foresight studies as exemplified by a BRICS country is discussed in the article ‘STI Foresight in Brazil’ by Cristiano Cagnin (Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Brazil). He analyses the generations and modes of Brazil’s Foresight projects in the context of worldwide Foresight evolution trends, paying particular attention to the reorientation of the national innovation system in view of recommendations made by experts in the Futures studies.
How to improve the efficiency of production management in an age of information overflow and dynamic market changes? Relevant recommendations are provided in the article ‘Modern Notation of Business Models: A Visual Trend.’ Its authors, Tatiana Gavrilova, Artem Alsufyev and Anna-Sophia Yansson (Graduate School of Management, St. Petersburg University), developed an alternative way of visualizing business models (in contrast to the traditional text and spreadsheet forms) which relies on mind-mapping format, popular in business applications. They then tested it by surveying a group of top managers of Russian companies. Results confirmed the hypothesis that the mind-mapping visualization framework is ‘cognitive scaffolding’ and is positively associated with managers’ and employees’ improved perception and understanding of the business model, which allows them to communicate, share and manipulate business model knowledge easily.
The final article provides an overview of the workshop ‘Long-term Science, Technology and Innovation Foresight: Challenges to S&T Policy’, held by the HSE ISSEK on 2—3 April 2014 in the framework of the XV HSE April International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development.
Editors of Foresight-Russia