Results and impact of national Foresight-studies

The article «Results and impact of national Foresight-studies» by Dirk Meissner (Deputy Head, Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, HSE ISSEK) is going to be published in the journal «Futures» soon

Conducting national Foresight studies has become common in many countries. However the impact of such studies on the performance of the national innovation system remains unclear. The paper therefore assesses the impact of national Foresight studies conducted in member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Research Area (ERA).

The study provides a first indication of the impact of national Foresight studies on the performance of national innovation systems. However the findings so far are preliminary since input data reflect long term developments of national innovation systems. Thus a long term study of the impacts of national Foresight studies is essential. In the short term, it can be concluded that national Foresight studies contribute significantly to the design and in some countries reshape of the innovation system structure and framework conditions. A direct quantitative measurement of the impact and thus the value of Foresight studies cannot yet be done in a statistically reliable fashion. However the changes these studies have caused within the national innovation systems may have an indirect impact on the future national innovation performance. Most recently national Foresight studies have switched from a rather exclusive focus on technology trend assessments towards more integrated holistic approaches identifying future challenges for society and economy as a whole thus deriving strengths and weaknesses of the national scientific, research and technology base to meet these challenges long term in the most appropriate way.