The second meeting of International Advisory Board of the HSE ISSEK’s Foresight Centre

A meeting of International Advisory Board of the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK’s) Foresight Centre was held at the Higher School of Economics on 17 October, 2012. The Board members — representatives of the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, the Manchester University and other prominent international organisations active in futures research — suggested a wide range of recommendations to facilitate further development of the ISSEK’s Foresight Centre.

Participants of the meeting of International Advisory Board of the HSE ISSEK’s Foresight Centre Luke Georghiou — chairman of the Board, vice-president for research and innovation of the Manchester University (UK) Leonid Gokhberg — first vice rector, director of the ISSEK Alexander Sokolov — deputy director of the ISSEK, director of the ISSEK’s Foresight Centre Ian Douglas Miles — head of ISSEK’s Innovation Economics Laboratory, professor at the Manchester University (UK) Jean Guinet — head of ISSEK’s S&T Research Laboratory Dirk Meissner — deputy head of ISSEK’s S&T Research Laboratory Alexander Chulok — head of S&T Forecasting Section of the Foresight Centre Özcan Saritas — editor-in-chief of the international Foresight journal, member of the Institute of Innovation Research (UK) Philip Shapira — professor, Manchester University (UK), professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (USA) Jonathan Calof — professor, Ottawa University (Canada) Pierre-Alain Schieb — member of Advisory Group of the OECD General Secretariat, Head of Futures Projects implemented by the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (France) Michael Keenan — analyst, OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (France) Jennifer Cassingena Harper — policy consultant, Malta Council for Science and Technology Kerstin Cuhls — Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Heidelberg University (Germany)

The Board meeting participants included Leonid Gokhberg (first vice rector, director of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge); Alexander Sokolov (director of the ISSEK’s Foresight Centre); heads of the institute’s international laboratories and long-term futures projects (Jean Guinet, Ian Miles, Dirk Meissner and Alexander Chulok). The Foresight Centre’s International Advisory Board is chaired by Luke Georghiou, vice-president for research and innovation of the Manchester University. This British university (a long-standing partner of the HSE in foresight studies) was also represented by Özcan Saritas (editor of the international Foresight journal and member of the Institute of Innovation Research) and professor Philip Shapira (the Georgia Institute of Technology). Professor Jonathan Calof (the Ottawa University) came from neighbouring Canada. The OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry was represented by Michael Keenan and Pierre-Alain Schieb. The fair half of the humanity was represented on the Board by Ms Kerstin Cuhls (the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research and the Heidelberg University), and Ms Jennifer Cassingena Harper (the Malta Council for Science and Technology). It was the second meeting of the ISSEK Foresight Centre’s International Advisory Board (the first one took place in October, 2011), so the experts devoted significant time to assessing the centre’s performance during the previous year. In his welcoming address Mr Leonid Gokhberg, first vice rector of the HSE and director of the ISSEK, mentioned that the Institute was celebrating its tenth anniversary in 2012, and highlighted the changes in the Foresight Centre’s activities during the last year. According to the speaker, more attention is now being paid to basic research; cooperation with international expert community was stepped up, as well as contacts with companies, while participation in projects aimed at developing government policy recommendations remained at a traditionally high level. A panoramic picture of long-term futures research being conducted at the Higher School of Economics was presented by Alexander Sokolov. Speaking about the achieved competitive advantages, he noted 1) an impressive research potential based on a precisely developed methodology and a pool of experts in excess of 10,000 people, and 2) the Centre’s leading positions among other national research organisations specialising in futures studies — which among other things enabled it to initiate development of a network of Foresight centres attached to the country’s leading universities.

According to Alexander Sokolov, now, during the third cycle of the Long-Term S&T Development Forecast of the Russian Federation, the Foresight experts are facing the following challenges: the need to quickly overcome the gap between R&D products and the market; move on from pure research to development of specific products demanded by the real sector customers. The share of projects implemented by the ISSEK’s Foresight Centre’s experts in this field is already sufficiently large. For example, the HSE experts conduct futures research and develop long-term innovative strategies for large companies, based on Foresight methodology and roadmaps; develop roadmaps for specific sectors and product groups; evaluate technological level of production facilities; monitor global technology trends; provide expert support to complex projects aimed at increasing innovation activities in the country, in particular by developing technological platforms and clusters. All this prompts the Centre staff to develop innovative approaches and formats for working with various groups of customers.

Exactly how the HSE Foresight Centre’s team could increase its potential and meet the current and emerging challenges? That was the question Alexander Sokolov asked the members of the International Advisory Board. During the subsequent lengthy debates comprising three sessions, the experts have developed a portfolio of recommendations, orienting the Foresight Centre towards securing an even more prominent position on the long-term futures research market.

Speaking about major areas which determine the structure of futures research, the Board members noted the global challenges problem. It became the subject of the first session, moderated by Jennifer Cassingena Harper.

The experts concluded that identification of global challenges is a challenge in itself, since this area is very closely linked with political decision-making sphere, both on national and global levels. Özcan Saritas noted the need to clearly define global challenges, since very different problems may be classified as such in different countries. The scientific community doesn’t have a universally agreed position on this issue either — researchers active in this field frequently view the horizon of global challenges’ identification quite differently. Jonathan Calof has brought the discussion down to earth somewhat, turning it back to the issue of dealing with futures projects’ customers; according to him, they are not concerned with global challenges at all, but need clear answers to questions which they deem important,

Discussing global challenges, the participants stressed the following points: 1) to meet such challenges, target groups must be clearly defined, capable of implementing relevant decisions; 2) to make global challenges an integral part of the global agenda, and to change the “rules of the game” accordingly, Foresight experts must accumulate a critical mass of relevant knowledge, and convince decision-makers and the general public that long-term futures research is important.

Knowledge management was another topic of the first session. The experts discussed this issue from two perspectives: 1) how to develop and improve the Foresight toolkit, and 2) how to communicate complex, socially important information to decision-makers, in the most efficient way.

Özcan Saritas, moderator of the second session, building on suggestions of some of the experts regarding the global challenges problem, focused the debates on emerging competitive niches in the long-term futures research field.

According to Ian Miles, Foresight experts should shape the futures research market, not limiting themselves to just fine-tuning the tools but educating and preparing potential clients. Based on her extensive experience, Kerstin Cuhls noted that sometimes it’s more important to give customers not answers but questions; customers should be provoked, made ready for potential new challenges, “nurturing” their interest to this kind of consulting services. Alexander Chulok voiced the idea of attracting new clients on the basis of links and contacts established in the course of previous projects.

Board members have repeatedly noted that existing quality standards and evaluation criteria applied to already implemented long-term futures projects would help Foresight experts to approach clients with proposals easily understandable for them. Another important quality control aspect is handling personnel. Elaborating on this topic, Leonid Gokhberg told about practical experience of hiring the Foresight Centre staff.

Moderator Özcan Saritas noted that the Higher School of Economics which traditionally implements government-commissioned projects may consider extending its portfolio of services on offer by making proposals to other customers. Also, according to him entering other competitive niches doesn’t necessarily imply attracting new clients, but developing new applications, new functions, new approaches to long-term futures studies and new research formats. The second session ended with a somewhat provocative question by the moderator about the HSE Foresight Centre’s ambitions, specifically whether it intended to become a major player on the international futures research market, or would it rather strengthen its status as a key national-level consulting centre.

Alexander Sokolov and Leonid Gokhberg responded that participation in international projects has a higher priority than competing with foreign Foresight organisations. Also, even without specifically claiming an ambition to become a leading world-level Foresight venue, the Centre has already secured a status as an important player on the international futures research market, after implementing several projects commissioned by the Ukrainian, Belorussian and Uzbek governments.

The third session of the Board was conducted in the brainstorming format. Its moderator Ian Miles formulated the key question as follows: “How the Higher School of Economics may develop its potential in the field of Foresight research?” During the subsequent lively discussion the experts proposed specific recommendations in such areas as strengthening the research basis, client relations, cooperation with partners and offering new services.

The meeting of the HSE Foresight Centre’s International Advisory Board was summarised by Luke Georghiou and Leonid Gokhberg.

Chairman of the Board Mr Georghiou noted that to increase competitive advantages on the long-term futures research market, the Foresight Centre’s team should set and follow clear standards — regarding building a profile of their activities, selection of projects, relations with clients and partners. The ISSEK director Mr Leonid Gokhberg admitted that the question about the Foresight Centre’s international ambitions was somewhat unexpected. Which allows to suggest, in the futures research terminology, a new development horizon — at least for the next decade — not just for the Foresight Centre but for the whole Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.