Foresight-Russia, no 3, 2013
The September issue opens with the news on inclusion of Foresight-Russia in the international database Scopus. Other topics are the results of the Russian Long-Term S&T Foresight 2030 for ICT, the evaluation of performance in science and higher education, and the conceptual frameworks and influence of foresight studies.
What trends in the ICT industry should we expect in the next 15-20 years? What factors and priorities will determine its future characteristics in Russia and in the world? The authors of "Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector", Alexander Giglavy, Alexander Sokolov, Gulnara Abdrakhmanova, Alexander Сhulok and Vasily Burov, attempt to answer these questions by analysing socio-economic and S&T challenges, "windows of opportunities" for Russia. They also address for the medium- and long-term, strategic directions of blueprint research, which is the foundation for the creation of innovative products and new markets.
Experts at Higher School of Economics (HSE) contribute three papers devoted to the evaluation of performance in science and higher education. In particular, ISSEK researchers Mikhail Gershman and Tatiana Kuznetsova do so from the viewpoint of researchers’ remuneration. In the article "Efficient Contracting in the R&D Sector: Key Parameters" they analyse efforts undertaken by the Russian government to improve the system of researchers’ remuneration through the introduction of the so-called "efficient contract" model. In order to identify definitive parameters of such a system, a series of focus groups was organised by HSE. Participants were invited to reflect on:
- factors that determine current and long-term loyalty of scientists;
- how the remuneration should be improved;
- issues influencing the effectiveness and efficiency of scientific organisations and individual employees.
Emerging from focus-group sessions, a worthy basic salary that is guaranteed by the government is seen as one of the key parameters of efficient contracting. The authors provide recommendations on its size and mechanisms for remunerating different categories of researchers.
Representatives of another HSE research unit, the Institute for Institutional Research, Elizaveta Sivak and Maria Yudkevich, have focused on profound institutional changes that have especially affected the academic profession. The article "Academic Profession in a Comparative Perspective: 1992–2012" discusses the dynamics of a number of key indicators characterizing these processes. Based upon the results of two international comparative surveys of the academic profession undertaken in 1992 and 2012 the authors select a sample for Russia and analyse changes in indicators related to the preferences and perceptions of faculties in local universities and reflecting, for instance:
- teaching/research preferences;
- views on reasons for leaving or staying at the university;
- views on the personal strain associated with work;
- academic career perspectives for Russian universities.
The ranking system of universities based on indicators of scientific and educational activity is described in "A Typology and Analysis of Russian University Performance in Education and Science" by Irina Abankina, Fuad Aleskerov, Veronika Belousova, Leonid Gokhberg, Kirill Zinkovsky, Sofya Kiselgof and Sergey Shvydun. The publication presents an overview of best practices in classifying HEIs, some typologies, a set of indicators and mathematical tools for constructing a typology of Russian public HEIs. This typology is based on clustering input (resource allocation) and output (performance) indicators for a characterization of academic and educational achievements of HEIs. It distinguishes and describes five HEI types — "Niche Schools", "Universities of Uncertain Position", "Market Leaders", "Potential and Real Leaders in Research and Education", "HEIs in Good Standing". The typology can be used for a comprehensive analysis of diverse Russian universities, and it can inform government policies addressing each of the identified HEI types by characteristic.
Another typology for forward-looking activities emerges from Marcus Bussey’s "Conceptual Frameworks of Foresight and Their Effects: Typology and Applications". The author, researcher at the Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia, examines the principle ideas and limitations of key concepts used in the futures studies. Clarity regarding the conceptual framework of foresight practice strengthens the field and enables better decision making on the choice of tools to guide and validate practice. Special attention is paid to the choice of approach in elaborating future strategies — the "open" (quest and comparison of alternatives, behavior toward risk) and "closed" (risk aversion, relying on "proven" patterns while weeding out unsustained ideas and initiatives). The former, according to the author, makes the personal and social resilience stronger, the latter weakens it. To help stakeholders to face the future with greater openness and courage is the principal mission of Foresight, believes Marcus Bussey.
The issue ends with a review of the international workshop "Public Research Organisations and Industry-Science Links", where participants discussed topics of particular relevance for Russia. Current large-scale institutional reforms aim at building a more efficient innovation system relying on substantial enhancements in R&D sector, in particular through the strengthening of university research.
Prepared by Alfiya Maksutova and Mikhail Salazkin